JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) ? The cost of 30 manhole covers that got sucked away: $5,800. A new concession stand at the destroyed high school: $228,600. Shelter and care for more than 1,300 homeless pets: $372,000.

The tornado that tore through Joplin a year ago already ranks as the deadliest twister in six decades. Now it carries another distinction ? the costliest since at least 1950.

Insurance policies are expected to cover most of the $2.8 billion in damage. But taxpayers could supply about $500 million in the form of federal and state disaster aid, low-interest loans and local bonds backed by higher taxes, according to records obtained by The Associated Press and interviews with federal, state and local officials.

Almost one-fifth of that money was paid to contractors who hauled off debris. Tens of millions more dollars went to individuals for temporary housing and other living expenses in the immediate aftermath of the storm. Additional money could help subsidize construction of a new hospital to replace one that was irreparably damaged.

All told, about two dozen school districts, emergency agencies, public housing authorities, religious groups and other nonprofits could receive taxpayer money through a program run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The outpouring of assistance is nowhere near the scale of Hurricane Katrina, which swamped New Orleans and damaged property along a wide swath of the Gulf Coast in 2005. Yet the Joplin tornado raises questions anew about the government’s role in disasters.

For Joplin families still on the long road to recovery, the taxpayer aid generally is appreciated.

The twister killed Danielle Robertson’s mother and destroyed the duplex she shared with her teenage daughter and two dogs. After several months of temporary living arrangements, Robertson eventually got one of the FEMA trailers for tornado survivors. No rent or utility payments were required.

“There are just thousands of people who would not have recovered at all had that aid not been there. I mean there’s no way,” said Robertson, who finally moved into a rebuilt rental home about three weeks ago. “I like to consider myself a survivalist, but there was nothing to survive with.”

The Joplin tornado, which killed 161 people, was one of 99 major disasters declared by President Barack Obama in 2011. Other included blizzards, wildfires and hurricanes. Congress responded in December by authorizing an extra $8.6 billion in disaster aid.

Missouri has a rainy day fund with about $500 million that was created for costly emergencies. But the fund hasn’t been tapped for Joplin because Gov. Jay Nixon and some lawmakers are reluctant to trigger a constitutional mandate that the borrowed money be replenished within three years.

Some critics of federal disaster aid point to Missouri’s rainy day fund as a prime example of how states pass the buck to the federal government for local tragedies.

“It seems to me this indicates the bad incentive problem that comes with federal involvement ? that states would rather tap federal taxpayers before they have to tap their own taxpayers,” said Chris Edwards, an economist and editor of downsizinggovernment.org, a website run by the Washington-based Cato Institute, a group that promotes free markets.

FEMA Director Craig Fugate said it takes an especially destructive tornado to trigger federal aid. What made the Joplin tornado so unusual was the intensity of the devastation in such a concentrated area, he said.

“We’re talking thousands of families impacted, hundreds of deaths, the trauma to the community alone was overwhelming,” Fugate said. “The likelihood of Joplin being able to recover successfully without federal assistance … warranted the president declaring it” a disaster zone.

Some of the taxpayer-subsidized projects, such as rebuilding St. John’s Regional Medical Center, will benefit people well beyond Joplin. The hospital served patients from a wide region extending into southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.

Hospital administrators estimate their total cost from the tornado at $950 million, including demolishing the old building, creating temporary facilities and constructing a permanent replacement.

The hospital expects to get more than $345 million from insurance. It’s submitted more than $88 million of expenses to FEMA, of which the federal government could pay for 75 percent. The rest will be covered by private donations and the resources of the Sisters of Mercy Health System, which runs the hospital.

“We do hope to get some money from FEMA, but we’re not counting on that,” said Shelly Hunter, the chief financial officer for Mercy Health of Joplin.

The cost of replacing damaged school buildings will be covered largely by insurance, too. But voters recently approved the largest bond issue in Joplin history ? $62 million ? to help rebuild or repair 10 school buildings. The resulting property tax increase is estimated at $65 a year for the owner of a $100,000 home ? roughly a 10 percent hike.

The Joplin school district has sought disaster aid for dozens of costs not covered by insurance, such as a truck and trailer used to shuttle band equipment between makeshift school buildings, as well as the concession stand, bleachers, flagpoles, fences, outdoor basketball hoops and new mulch for playgrounds. The cost to remove and replace the mulch at just three sites: $7,100.

The city has its own share of tornado costs, like the manhole covers. The tornado also destroyed two sirens that warn people of dangerous storms. Taxpayers paid more than $41,000 for temporary and permanent replacements, according to disaster-aid records.

During the cleanup, 14 fire hydrants and curbs and gutters at 111 locations were damaged by heavy equipment. And tires were punctured on about 125 vehicles, costing almost $57,300.

The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals said it spent $1.2 million providing shelter and veterinary care for 1,300 homeless pets after the tornado. The city of Joplin agreed to cover $351,000 of those costs and now is seeking reimbursement from FEMA. It’s seeking an additional $21,000 for costs incurred by Joplin Human Society.

Federal disaster aid rules also reward local entities for the charitable work and donations of others. Joplin expects to receive $1 million through FEMA as a partial credit for an estimated $17.7 million worth of volunteer labor and donated supplies and services. That money can be used to offset the city’s own expenses for debris cleanup and emergency response.

“The fact that we can basically break even from a tornado of this magnitude is astonishing, and it’s in large part due to the donated resources,” city Finance Director Leslie Jones said. “Not only did it help us financially, they helped us clean up our community. I don’t even have words to describe it.”

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This image provided by the Tunica Mississippi Sheriff’s department shows James Willie, who authorities arrested early Friday, May 18.

By msnbc.com staff and news services

JACKSON, Miss. — Authorities in Mississippi said early Friday they have arrested a suspect in two fatal highway shootings that happened late at night along desolate stretches.

James D. Willie, 28, of Sardis, Miss., was being held on charges of kidnapping, aggravated assault and rape and would be formally charged with two counts of capital murder, Mississippi Department of Public Safety spokesman Warren Strain told The Associated Press.

Willie was being held at the Tunica County jail in north Mississippi.


“Hundreds of man hours have been devoted to tracking down and arresting this individual,” Gov. Phil Bryant said in a statement.

Willie had not been posing as a police officer in the shootings as authorities previously thought, Strain said.

Willie was arrested Tuesday morning when authorities responded to a disturbance at an apartment. Tunica police found Willie with a woman who claimed he had raped her, a news release said. When Willie was arrested, authorities found a 9mm Ruger in his possession. Testing later found that it was the same gun used in the two highway shootings, authorities said.

Thomas Schlender, 74, of Raymond, Neb., was found dead in his car on Interstate 55 in Panola County on May 8 around 1:30 a.m. Lori Anne Carswell, 48, of Hernando, Miss. was found dead near her car on Mississippi Highway 713 in nearby Tunica County about 2:15 a.m. on May 11.

Mississippi police discuss two random shootings which they believe are linked together, possibly to someone impersonating a police officer.

Mississippi law enforcement agencies had warned motorists someone may be posing as an officer because the shooting victims had no obvious reason to be stopped on the interstate where they were found.

“Our citizens have been terrorized by these murders and we worked tirelessly to resolve them,”?Public Safety Commissioner Albert Santa Cruz said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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FILE – In this Aug. 25, 2009 file photo, Internet pioneer Len Kleinrock poses for a portrait next to an Interface Message Processor, which was used to develop the Internet. Kleinrock, arguably the world’s first Internet user, says Facebook is fine for his grandchildren, but it’s not for him. (AP Photo/Matt Sayles, File)

FILE – In this Aug. 25, 2009 file photo, Internet pioneer Len Kleinrock poses for a portrait next to an Interface Message Processor, which was used to develop the Internet. Kleinrock, arguably the world’s first Internet user, says Facebook is fine for his grandchildren, but it’s not for him. (AP Photo/Matt Sayles, File)

(AP) ? Don’t try to friend MaLi Arwood on Facebook. You won’t find her there.

You won’t find Thomas Chin, either. Or Kariann Goldschmitt. Or Jake Edelstein.

More than 900 million people worldwide check their Facebook accounts at least once a month, but millions more are Facebook holdouts.

They say they don’t want Facebook. They insist they don’t need Facebook. They say they’re living life just fine without the long-forgotten acquaintances that the world’s largest social network sometimes resurrects.

They are the resisters.

“I’m absolutely in touch with everyone in my life that I want to be in touch with,” Arwood says. “I don’t need to share triviality with someone that I might have known for six months 12 years ago.”

Even without people like Arwood, Facebook is one of the biggest business success stories in history. The site had 1 million users by the end of 2004, the year Mark Zuckerberg started it in his Harvard dorm room. Two years later, it had 12 million. Facebook had 500 million by summer 2010 and 901 million as of March 31, according to the company.

That staggering rise in popularity is one reason why Facebook Inc.’s initial public offering is one of the most hotly anticipated in years. The company’s shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market on Friday under the ticker symbol “FB”. Facebook is likely to have an estimated market valuation of some $100 billion, making it worth more than Kraft Foods, Ford or Disney.

Facebook still has plenty of room to grow, particularly in developing countries where people are only starting to get Internet access. As it is, about 80 percent of its users are outside U.S. and Canada.

But if Facebook is to live up to its pre-IPO hype and reward the investors who are clamoring for its stock this week, it needs to convince some of the resisters to join. Two out of every five American adults have not joined Facebook, according to a recent Associated Press-CNBC poll. Among those who are not on Facebook, a third cited a lack of interest or need.

If all those people continue to shun Facebook, the social network could become akin to a postal system that only delivers mail to houses on one side of the street. The system isn’t as useful, and people aren’t apt to spend as much time with it. That means fewer opportunities for Facebook to sell ads.

Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project, says that new communications channels ? from the telephone to radio, TV and personal computers ? often breed a cadre of holdouts in their early days.

“It’s disorienting because people have different relationships with others depending on the media they use,” Rainie says. “But we’ve been through this before. As each new communications media comes to prominence, there is a period of adoption.”

Len Kleinrock, 77, says Facebook is fine for his grandchildren, but it’s not for him.

“I do not want more distractions,” he says. “As it is, I am deluged with email. My friends and colleagues have ready access to me and I don’t really want another service that I would feel obliged to check into on a frequent basis.”

Kleinrock says his resistance is generational, but discomfort with technology isn’t a factor.

After all, Kleinrock is arguably the world’s first Internet user. The University of California, Los Angeles professor was part of the team that invented the Internet. His lab was where researchers gathered in 1969 to send test data between two bulky computers ?the beginnings of the Arpanet network, which morphed into the Internet we know today.

“I’m having a ‘been-there, done-that’ feeling,” Kleinrock says. “There’s not a need on my part for reaching out and finding new social groups to interact with. I have trouble keeping up with those I’m involved with now.”

Thomas Chin, 35, who works at an advertising and media planning company in New York, says he may be missing out on what friends-of-friends-of-friends are doing, but he doesn’t need Facebook to connect with family and closer acquaintances.

“If we’re going to go out to do stuff, we organize it (outside) of Facebook,” he says.

Some people don’t join the social network because they don’t have a computer or Internet access, are concerned about privacy, or generally dislike Facebook. Those without a college education are less likely to be on Facebook, as are those with lower incomes. Women who choose to skip Facebook are more likely than men to cite privacy issues, while seniors are more likely than those 50-64 years old to cite computer issues, according the AP-CNBC poll.

About three-quarters of seniors are not on Facebook. By contrast, more than half of those under 35 use it every day.

The poll of 1,004 adults nationwide was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications May 3-7 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Steve Jones, a professor who studies online culture and communications at the University of Illinois at Chicago, says many resisters consider Facebook to be too much of a chore.

“We’ve added social networking to our lives. We haven’t added any hours to our days,” Jones says. “The decision to be online on Facebook is simultaneously a decision not to be doing something else.”

Jones says many people on Facebook try to overcome that by multitasking, but they end up splitting their attention and engaging with others online only superficially.

Arwood, 47, a restaurant manager in Chicago, says she was surprised when colleagues on an English-teaching program in rural Spain in 2010 opted to spend their breaks checking Facebook.

“I spent my time on break trying to learn more about the Spanish culture, really taking advantage of it,” she says. “I went on walks with some of the students and asked them questions.”

Kariann Goldschmitt, 32, a music professor at New College of Florida in Sarasota, Fla., was on Facebook not long after its founding in 2004, but she quit in 2010. In part, it was because of growing concerns about her privacy and Facebook’s ongoing encouragement of people to share more about themselves with the company, with marketers and with the world.

She says she’s been much more productive since leaving.

“I was a typical user, on it once or twice a day,” she says. “After a certain point, I sort of resented how it felt like an obligation rather than fun.”

Besides Facebook resisters and quitters, there are those who take a break. In some cases, people quit temporarily as they apply for new jobs, so that potential employers won’t stumble on photos of their wild nights out drinking. Although Facebook doesn’t make it easy to find, it offers an option for suspending accounts (Look for a link under the “Security” tab in “Account Settings.”)

Goldschmitt says it takes effort to stay in touch with friends and relatives without Facebook. For instance, she has to make mental notes of when her friends are expecting babies, knowing that they have become so used to Facebook “that they don’t engage with us anymore.”

“I’m like, ‘Hmmm, when is nine months?’ I have to remember to contact them since they won’t remember to tell me when the baby’s born.”

Neil Robinson, 54, a government lawyer in Washington, says that when his nephew’s son was born, pictures went up on Facebook almost immediately. As a Facebook holdout, he had to wait for someone to email photos.

After years of resisting, Robinson plans to join next month, mostly because he doesn’t want to lose touch with younger relatives who choose Facebook as their primary means of communication.

But for every Robinson, there is an Edelstein, who has no desire for Facebook and prefers email and postcards.

“I prefer to keep my communications personal and targeted,” says Jake Edelstein, 41, a pharmaceutical consultant in New York. “You’re getting a message that’s written for you. Clearly someone took the time to sit down to do it.”

___

Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius in Washington contributed this report.

___

Online:

AP site on poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

CNBC site on poll: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47390543

Link for suspending an account (log-in required):

https://www.facebook.com/deactivate.php

Link for deleting an account (log-in required): http://on.fb.me/GYg2ND

Associated Press

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ScienceDaily (May 16, 2012) ? For the first time, scientists have seen an X-ray-irradiated mineral go to two different states of matter in about 40 femtoseconds (a femtosecond is one quadrillionth of a second).

Using the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) X-ray Free-Electron Laser (XFEL) at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory at Stanford, Stefan Hau-Riege of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and colleagues heated graphite to induce a transition from solid to liquid and to warm-dense plasma.

Ultrafast phase transitions from solid to liquid and plasma states are important in the development of new material-synthesis techniques, in ultrafast imaging, and high-energy density science.

By using different pulse lengths and calculating different spectra, the team was able to extract the time dependence of plasma parameters, such as electron and ion temperatures and ionization states.

“We found that the heating and disintegration of the ion lattice occurs much faster than anticipated,” Hau-Riege said.

The research provides new insights into the behavior of matter irradiated by intense hard X-rays. Though the study ultimately serves as a breakthrough in plasma physics and ultrafast materials science, it also affects other fields such as single molecule biological imaging and X-ray optics.

For single-molecule bioimaging, the team found that in certain cases it may be substantially more difficult than anticipated because energy transfer is surprisingly fast. In X-ray optics, they found that the damage threshold is lower than anticipated.

This is the first XFEL high-energy density science experiment that used inelastic X-ray scattering as a plasma diagnostic.

The research is scheduled to appear in the May 21 edition Physical Review Letters.

Other Livermore researchers include Alexander Graf, Tilo Doppner, Rich London, Carsten Formann, Siegfried Glenzer, Matthias Frank and Joe Bradley.

In addition to SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, participating institutions include Universitat Duisburg-Essen; Max Planck Advanced Study Group, Center for Free Electron Laser Science; Max Planck Institut fur medizinische Forschung; and Max Planck Institut fur Kernphysik, all of Germany.

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(AP) ? House Republicans are revising their proposal to renew the 1994 Violence Against Women Act, but not enough to satisfy President Barack Obama and other Democrats intent on preserving their lead among female voters in this volatile election year.

In a veto message hours before lawmakers were to vote, the White House said the GOP-written bill doesn’t go far enough to protect battered illegal immigrants, Native Americans or gays.

The GOP proposals, which differ from the Senate-passed version, “take direct aim at immigrant victims of domestic violence and sexual assault,” and “jeopardize victims by placing them directly in harm’s way,” the White House said.

The overwhelming majority of domestic violence victims are women ? a crucial constituency this presidential and congressional election year and one without which Obama would not be president. The renewal of the act, reauthorized twice with overwhelming bipartisan support, is the latest example of partisan warfare this year over women’s issues that have won wide agreement in the past.

The Violence Against Women Act was established in 1994 to provide taxpayer money for the prevention of domestic abuse and the protection of victims. The last reauthorization, in 2005, expired in 2011.

Sensing political gain by bringing up the reauthorization in an election year, majority Democrats in the Senate expanded it to specifically protect gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgender Americans from discrimination and abuse in a move many Republicans saw as a provocation to vote against a bill approved without objection in the past.

Senate Republicans also objected to Democratic provisions in the bill that would give tribal authorities the power to prosecute non-Indians for abuse committed on tribal lands, saying it was unconstitutional because the accused would have no role in shaping laws that could be used against them.

The Senate bill passed, 68-31, with 15 Republicans voting yes.

A Republican-written House version, now revised, is strongly opposed by an armada of advocacy groups for women, gays and Native Americans.

It omits the Senate’s references to gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgenders and does not allow Native American authorities to prosecute non-Indians who commit abuse on tribal land.

The new version does restore some confidentiality for immigrant victims of abuse, according to a Democratic official who was not authorized to speak on the issue publicly. But the White House said it still allows abusers to become aware of their victims’ allegations.

And it allows a battered Native American woman or a tribe on her behalf to file in U.S. District Court for a protection order against an alleged abuser, whether Indian or not, who committed the abuse on Indian land. But the White House and other Democrats want tribal courts to be able to prosecute the offenders, a proposal Republicans insist is unconstitutional.

Objections to the GOP-written bill also came from a small group of Republicans who urged the House to consider a bill that could gain a measure of bipartisanship.

Rep. Judy Biggert, R-Ill., told the House Rules Committee late Tuesday that the bill should look more like the Senate measure on the immigrant and LGBT provisions.

“I am very concerned that the current bill, even with changes made … doesn’t reflect everything we’ve learned over the last five years in terms of what works best for prosecutors or victims,” Biggert told the panel.

If the House bill passes, a committee of lawmakers from both chambers is expected to work out differences.

Associated Press

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Updated at 2:23 p.m. ET

(AP) SANAA, Yemen – Yemeni warplanes and troops backed by heavy artillery waged a four-front assault on al Qaeda militants Tuesday, trying to uproot their hold in the southern desert with the help of a team of U.S. troops at a nearby air base.

The central U.S. role in the operation would be a significant stepping up of American-Yemeni cooperation against al Qaeda’s local branch, which is accused of a string of attempted attacks against U.S. targets.

The offensive signaled increased concern over the growing strength of al Qaeda in Yemen since the militants gained control of several southern towns by taking advantage of the security vacuum during an uprising that led to the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Yemeni strikes kill at least 16 Qaeda militants
30 al Qaeda militants killed in Yemeni fighting
Yemen: U.S. drone strikes kill 11 al Qaeda militants

Yemeni troops battled the militants on the ground in three areas as warplanes bombed suspected hideouts. Military officials said the main goal was to retake Zinjibar, the provincial capital of Abyan province.

Yemen’s ill-equipped and poorly trained military repeatedly has stumbled in trying to fight al Qaeda ever since the militants seized territory last year. But since Saleh’s resignation in February, his successor, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, has vowed to make the fight against al Qaeda a top priority.

The effort is supported by the U.S., which considers al Qaeda’s offshoot in Yemen the network’s most active. On Sunday, the White House’s top counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, met with Hadi in the capital Sanaa.

Hadi’s office later said the Yemeni leader briefed Brennan on the army’s progress in the south, which Defense Minister Mohammed Nasser Ahmed described as the “final decisive battle against al Qaeda.”

The visit followed the revelation that the CIA had thwarted an ambitious plot by al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen to destroy a U.S.-bound airliner using a new, sophisticated underwear bomb. But the bomber was actually a double agent who turned the bomb over to the U.S. government.

Several Yemeni military officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday that unlike previous, failed offensives against al Qaeda, this time the United States was providing direct logistical support to the Yemeni military.

The officials said an air base called al-Annad in the southern province of Lahj is serving as a command center for nearly 60 U.S. troops who were providing advice, information and logistical support to Yemeni troops.

The Yemeni military officials, who are familiar with the workings of the army in the south, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the highly sensitive cooperation. The U.S. Embassy in Sanaa could not be reached for comment.

On Sunday, al Qaeda fighters attempted an attack from the northern gate of al-Annad air, close to the troops’ living quarters, but were repelled. One Yemeni officer was killed in the attack, the officials said, and the Yemeni military later deployed heavy troops to protect the air base.

The Pentagon said a week ago that it had sent military trainers back to Yemen for “routine” counterterrorism cooperation with Yemeni security forces.

“We have begun to reintroduce small numbers of trainers into Yemen,” a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. John Kirby, told reporters.

Another American official said the arriving troops were special operations forces, who work under more secretive arrangements than conventional U.S. troops and whose expertise includes training indigenous forces. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the subject publicly.

The U.S. military training program in Yemen was suspended last year amid the revolt against Saleh. Under the former president, Washington had greatly expanded counterterrorism aid, at one point having between 100 and 150 trainers there.

The U.S. also has a substantial naval presence near Yemen. A Marine contingent aboard U.S. Navy ships arrived in the area over the weekend on a routine rotation. It includes the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, with about 2,000 Marines aboard vessels including the amphibious assault ship Iwo Jima. Also in the group is the USS New York, an amphibious transport dock ship that was built with more than seven tons of steel from the World Trade Center. It is the New York’s maiden deployment.

Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was behind the failed Christmas 2009 attempt to bomb an American airliner as well as a foiled attempt the following year to mail package bombs to the U.S.

The large offensive began Saturday but sharply escalated on Monday.

By Tuesday, Yemeni troops had pushed into the center of Zinjibar and military helicopters were flying over the city for the first time in an indication that al Qaeda militants did not have heavy weaponry capable of shooting them down, one military official said.

The troops “can for the first time catch a glimpse of the torched government buildings” in which al Qaeda’s fighters had hunkered down during the battles that turned the downtown into a ghost city after thousands of residents fled, the official said. He added that six militants were captured in Zinjibar, but provided no other details on casualties on either side.


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BEIJING (Reuters) – China has been quietly and gently pressuring North Korea to scrap plans for a third nuclear test, said two sources with knowledge of closed-door discussions between the countries, but there is no indication how the North will react.

If North Korea goes ahead with the test, China would consider taking some retaliatory steps, but they would not be substantive, a source with ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters.

North Korea has almost completed preparations for the test, Reuters reported in late April, a step that would further isolate the impoverished state after last month’s failed rocket launch that the United States says was a ballistic missile test.

“China is unhappy … and urged North Korea not to conduct a nuclear test near Changbai Mountain,” said the source, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

China feared a radiation leak and damage to the environment from a blast, the source added.

“China also complained about the environmental damage to the area after the first two tests.”

When North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, it caused environmental damage to the mountain straddling the border with China. North Korea ceded part of the mountain to China in 1963.

It was unclear if the secretive North Korean government, typically unwilling to bow to outside pressure, would defer or drop the plans. China is the closest thing to an ally that North Korea has.

“The impact on China’s northeast would be huge,” the source said of a third test.

Chinese officials have discussed whether threats of diplomatic action would be effective, but any action might be restricted to some economic measures to signal China’s displeasure and would not affect vital food aid for North Korea, the source said.

A Western diplomat, who also asked not to be identified, confirmed that China has put pressure on North Korea to abandon the test.

Major diplomatic repercussions were unlikely, however, said Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. Instead, Jin, who has knowledge of how China deals with North Korea, said China may use financial levers to influence its neighbor.

“If closed-door negotiations fail to produce results, economic aid could be cut,” Jin said, adding that imports of mineral resources and unspecified “special local products” could also be reduced.

U.N. RESOLUTIONS

China’s exports to North Korea rose 20.6 percent last year to $2.28 billion from 2010, while imports plunged 81.4 percent to $147.4 million, according to Chinese customs figures.

China would also likely back another U.N. resolution slapping further sanctions on North Korea, including trade, said Jin.

China condemned North Korea’s first nuclear test in October 2006, carried out in defiance of China’s public pleas, and it supported a U.N. resolution that authorized sanctions. It backed sanctions again after the North‘s second test in May 2009.

Despite pressuring North Korea to cancel plans for a third test, China would want to avoid serious diplomatic measures, such as recalling its ambassador, said Jin.

“China does not want unnecessary external trouble ahead of the 18th congress. A major change in policy is not likely,” he said, referring to the Communist Party’s five-yearly conclave later this year when a broad leadership change is widely expected.

The sources declined to speculate whether China would cut oil supplies to North Korea.

In 2003, China briefly cut off fuel to North Korea after a missile test, but it cited technical problems.

The United States wants China to do more to rein in North Korea but China has little leverage over it and is unlikely to pull the plug on food aid due to fears of instability in its northeast, said the Western diplomat and Jin.

“China can’t stop food aid. If that stops, it would endanger the regime,” the envoy said of North Korea’s leadership.

The main factor keeping China from using harsh measures to restrain North Korea is the fear of a destabilizing exodus of refugees into northeast China, preceded or followed by collapse of the North Korean regime.

“Experience has shown that sanctions have little impact on North Korean decision-making. And, of course, the comprehensive sanctions regime will be sabotaged by China, for whom a nuclear North Korea is a lesser evil than an unstable and or collapsing North Korea,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kookmin University.

In addition, in the face of rising tension over disputed islands in the South China Sea, the last thing China needs is the United States using a North Korean nuclear test as an excuse to step up its military presence in the region, said a source with ties to China’s top leadership, requesting anonymity.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in Beijing for two days of meetings this month, said the United States was willing to work with North Korea if it changed its ways.

North Korea hopes the United States would sign a peace treaty and recognize it – the North’s long-standing demands – if it put off the nuclear test, the source with ties to Pyongyang and Beijing said.

The 1950-53 Korean War, in which China helped North Korea against the United States and South Korea, ended in a truce.

The threat of a nuclear test comes as Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s and the third member of his family to rule North Korea, seeks to cement his grip on power.

His father, Kim Jong-il, died in December after 17 years of rule that included mismanagement that resulted in the starving to death of an estimated 1 million people in the 1990s.

The untested Kim Jong-un has reaffirmed his father’s “military first” policies that have stunted economic growth, dashing slim hopes of an opening to the outside world.

North Korean media recently upped its criticism of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who cut off aid to the North when he took power in 2008, calling him a “rat” and a “bastard” and threatening to turn the South Korean capital to ashes.

(Additional reporting by David Chance in SEOUL; Editing by Don Durfee and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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This is Professor John Mainstone, from the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia. He’s the custodian of the longest running science experiment in the history of the world. He also must be the saddest scientist in the world. More »


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